Political polls are issued regularly, designed to indicate what voters are thinking about the various political parties. In years gone by, these saw respondents select the party they wanted, and commentators added up the various parties to try and work out what flavour of coalition government we would get post election.
As our MMP method of governance has developed with parties forming blocs, the polls have also developed, and they now seem to be a selection of which bloc (National-led one to the right or Labour-led one to the left) you would prefer and what flavour would you like to dominate within that bloc. Let me explain.
In the last election, the government that was formed secured 53% of the total vote. In a recent poll (TV 1 poll on 16/02/26, the government also secured 53% of the vote which indicates that nothing much has changed. Perhaps people want more economic improvement but feel the current government is the better bet to do this, so we will give them more time. The changes that have occurred are not in what bloc we want to see govern, but in the flavour of the bloc. This is represented in NZ First gaining 4% while National has lost 4%; a definite swing.
This swing is also seen in the preferred Prime Minister vote with the government leaders receiving 58% of the preference votes cast, which is higher than the number who want that bloc to govern. This would indicate people who wanted the left bloc would still prefer one of the right bloc party leaders as Prime Minister. Who would this be? Once again, the change on the right is with NZ First Leader Winston Peters, now in the ascendancy.
The question that needs to be asked is why has NZ First made these gains in popularity? My suggestion is there are a few policies that have contributed, such as the emphasis on mining and other such pragmatic policies, but the disdain shown by the NZ First Leaders for Te Pati Māori, indications that they want the Waitangi Tribunal “brought into line” and NZ First’s recently announced policy on holding a referendum on whether the Māori seats are retained or not, are the most significant influences. What are these issues about?
The Te Pati Māori issue is one all should be familiar with. They purport to represent Maoridom but only get 10% of Maoridom supporting them. The low support is possibly due to the way they carry themselves within Parliament and their lack of policy work – an easy target for NZ First to pick on really. The Waitangi Tribunal was set up to rectify land grievances that came from the great English land grab of the 1800s and has done much good work in this area.
They have moved into other areas however, basically any area at all – such as the Crown use of Te Reo, Government processes, the microwave spectrum and so on. When standing for election in 2008, John Key pledged to close the Waitangi Tribunal by 2014 but did not do so which upset some voters.
The policy of NZ First to restrict the Waitangi Tribunal to land claims does resonate with such voters. It also resonates with those who have grown weary of the treaty being used to justify a constant demand for favouritism for any person claiming a smidgen of Maori blood; cultural days off for example.
The most recent NZ First policy of holding a referendum on retaining or doing away with the Māori seats looks to have given a boost to NZ First standings. The Māori seats were created supposedly to ensure Māori representation but as Sir Apirana Ngata indicated in his journal (Te Tiriti O Waitangi. He Whakamarama), they were probably intended to restrict Maori representation. Maori and European populations were on a par in those days and if given full rights, Maori would most likely have secured greater representation than they received from four dedicated seats. With the introduction of MMP, the Electoral Commissions recommendation was to get rid of these seats as they were no longer necessary; however, this was not done.
Many people feel these seats are pointless and this is reinforced not only by the Te Pati Maori antics but by the fact that our current parliament has 33 MPs of Maori descent. Removing the Maori seats would leave Maori representation at 23% of the total number of MPs, reflective of the population, now a mixture or races, ethnicities, and cultures.
As this election year proceeds, you will see more polls and hear journalistic explanations. Keep in mind that this process is really about support for the two blocs and the flavour people want for that bloc. It will be interesting to see if NZ First starts attracting support from Labour as the Labour voters start to like the flavour they offer and give up on the idea of success for the left bloc.
